Tension Mounts for Saturday's Protests

You could feel the tension in the those rooftop chants in the anticipation for the events that will unfold today in Iran. From the Huffington Post:

A Facebook user named Seth Eslami posts a message on Christiane Amanpour's page: "So far I have received several goodbye emails from my friends in Iran. It's is sad...very sad & braking my hard.What is the price tag on freedom? We can't tell people what to do from here.I want to see them free but I hate to see them in blood..."

There are also reports of a buildup of security forces. From the BBC:

It is a very confused and tense situation. The security forces are out on the streets. They have been issuing dire warnings that they will deal with any unauthorised demonstrations with determination.

This is all about the position of the Supreme Leader. Any rally, particularly if it is attended by the opposition leaders, would be the most direct challenge to his authority. If it goes ahead and there is a large crowd, that would be a massive challenge to him. If it goes ahead and it is broken up with violent force, that could also damage his position enormously. It is a very tense situation. These are huge political issues at stake, if not even the future of the Islamic Republic.

The AP:

Fire trucks took up positions in Revolution Square, the site of the planned gathering, and riot police surrounded Tehran University, the site of recent clashes between protesters and security forces, one witness said.

CNN recently tweeted the following:

Thousands of people attempting to enter Tehran protest site have been blocked by heavily armed police, eyewitness says.

Other tweets coming from people inside Iran:

IranRiggedElect:

Houses in alleys opening doors to injured protestors, one source reporting hallway is full of beaten ppl, many crying...#IranElection

IranElection09:

Today is maybe the most important day in iran's history, will we see Tiananmen Sq.? It seems ppl don't care and still will go #iranelection

TehranBureau:

shooting reported in Azadi Sq

.

Vanak Square reportedly full of civilian-dressed forces (lebas shakhsi)

There are current reports of tear gas being deployed in Azadi Square and police blocking protesters from entering. I fear we will be seeing some of the most disturbing images of these events after today is over.

The Power of New Media and the Ongoing Protests in Iran

As I mentioned in my last post, a lot of the media outlets are being shut down in Iran. Apparently Twitter has escaped any kind of shutdown and has been a means by which the citizens and protesters have been able to communicate. There were even rooftop chants that were organized via Twitter. Here is some video of these chants that are reportedly becoming deafening. It is enough to give you chills:



Andrew Sullivan's blog is doing a great job covering this issue and has these thoughts:

That a new information technology could be improvised for this purpose so swiftly is a sign of the times. It reveals in Iran what the Obama campaign revealed in the United States. You cannot stop people any longer. You cannot control them any longer. They can bypass your established media; they can broadcast to one another; they can organize as never before.

It's increasingly clear that Ahmadinejad and the old guard mullahs were caught off-guard by this technology and how it helped galvanize the opposition movement in the last few weeks. That's why they didn't see what those of us surgically attached to modems could spot a mile away: something was happening in Iran. If Drum is right, the mullahs believed their own propaganda about victory until reality hit them so hard so fast, they miscalculated badly and over-reached.

The key force behind this is the next generation, the Millennials, who elected Obama in America and may oust Ahmadinejad in Iran. They want freedom; they are sick of lies; they enjoy life and know hope.

This generation will determine if the world can avoid the apocalypse that will come if the fear-ridden establishments continue to dominate global politics, motivated by terror, armed with nukes, and playing old but now far too dangerous games. This generation will not bypass existing institutions and methods: look at the record turnout in Iran and the massive mobilization of the young and minority vote in the US. But they will use technology to displace old modes and orders. Maybe this revolt will be crushed. But even if it is, the genie has escaped this Islamist bottle.

Maybe that's what we're hearing on the rooftops of Tehran: the sound of the next revolution.

Allah O Akbar!

Steve Clemons has a take on the Iranian regime's response to the opposition:

He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."

But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.

My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.

Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.